STRATEGY CENTRAL

How good are you at seeing what’s coming?  How effective is your organization at seeing the handwriting on the wall?  Amazing to me how blind we often are when it comes to our ability to recognize the "signs of the times."

I mentioned finding futurist Paul Saffo in a post I wrote last week.  Part of the Harvard Business Online collection.  Great stuff.  Here is the first of the six rules:

• Define a cone of uncertainty.  This is an interesting idea.  Basically, think about the edges of possibility, what Saffo refers to as the line between "highly improbably and wildly impossible,"  the "ragged edge of plausibility, the outcomes that might conceivably happen but make you uncomfortable even to contemplate."  Don’t forget to also think about the center, such obvious possibilities that they’re easily overlooked.

Why do you create a cone of uncertainty?  The basic concept is that it allows you to see both potential threats and opportunities ahead of time.   Similar to Drucker’s line about simply looking "out the window and see what’s visible – but not yet seen." 

This is an exercise that many of us need to undertake.  Could your organization use the idea?  What if you pulled out a flip chart and made you own cone of uncertainty representing the coming decade.  Couldn’t you begin to create your own cone of uncertainty?

Want your own copy of the article?  You can download Six Rules of Effective Forecasting right here.

I started at San Diego State University as a Business major.  Tried but couldn’t pass their self-starter version of Intermediate Algebra.  Tried three times and dropped it all three times.  Switched to English and the rest is history.  But I never lost interest in the world of business, especially leadership, innovation, strategy and change.  So I don’t remember exactly why I picked up a copy of In Search of Excellence, but I still have my marked up, wet from the pool, falling apart at the spine copy.  Because of that read I’ve maintained an interest in the business genre and Tom Peters remains a favorite over 20 years later.

So when I saw this interview with Tom over on the Author Blog I thought you might like it too.  Here’s Tom Peters on writing and speaking.

And here’s a great quote that he led with when asked how he got into writing and speaking in the first place:

Few leaders want to be leaders.  They are compelled to be leaders to fix something they don’t like.  Warren Bennis (attributed by Tom Peters)

Actually…this news comes from inside looking out.  It may be 54°F, but it is not outside weather.  Can’t hang…blood’s just too thin.   Spent the day playing scrabble and checking who the Bruins will play on Saturday.  Memphis…should be a lot of fun!  Hope you had a great day!

On Saturday, October 15th, 1988, I was having dinner at Debbie’s apartment.  We would be married about two months later.  That night we saw Kirk Gibson hit a homerun to win game 1 of the 1988 World Series against the Oakland Athletics. 

Don’t know if you’ve caught on to David Cook yet…but he’s worked this thing out…to quote Randy.  Jammin’!  Billie Jean rocked.  Eleanor Rigby was jammin’.  Daytripper started a three week melee!  Started out thinking that David Archuleta wins…no more.  Cook rules.

Love this slide from Jason Fried’s 37signals SXSW presentation.  In a segment of his talk on questioning your work (rather than continuing on the same path just because…) he had a slide with the following:

• Why are we doing this?
• What problem are we solving?
• Is this actually useful?
• Are we adding value?
• Will this change behavior?
• Is there an easier way?
• What’s the opportunity cost?
• Is it really worth it?

I don’t know about you, but I can think of lots of applications for that slide!

There’s a helpful recap of his whole talk right here.
 

What’s the difference between predicting the future and forecasting?  Take a look at this quote from futurist Paul Saffo:

Prediction
is concerned with future certainty; forecasting looks at how hidden currents in
the present signal possible changes in direction for companies, societies, or
the world at large. Thus, the primary goal of forecasting is to identify the
full range of possibilities, not a limited set of illusory certainties.  Six Rules of Effective Forecasting

Think your organization has some hidden currents?  Do you know what they are?

Thanks to Kare Anderson for the tip about Paul Saffo!  You can order the article right here.

What do you think about Twitter?  Are you trying it?  Have you thought about it and put it off?  Are you thinking, “Twitter?  Is that some kind of bird call?”

I’m trying it.  A little tough getting into the swing of putting up useful tweets.  Not hard at all putting up ridiculous tweets (I’m in the back yard with Max…the dalmatian).  But is that a ridiculous tweet?

If you’re using it…how are you using it?  If you’re reading this in India…what do you think about it?  And while we’re on the subject, if you want to get the latest tweet you can get it right here.

A few days back I mentioned a great interview I had heard with Frances Hesselbein, former CEO of the Girl Scouts and legendary follower of Peter Drucker.  They’ve put up the mp3 of the interview.  You can listen in right here.  Have a pen and paper ready because she rips off some great insights right at the very beginning.  Good stuff.

If you want another great example of what Hesselbein is about, check out this article on what shaped her as a leader.  Very powerful.

Speaking of Seth Godin, you can listen in to the interview over at Catalyst right here.  Great interview.